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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-22 07:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 220534 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the system has not become better organized and tropical cyclone development is not expected before the system moves inland over the Yucatan peninsula this morning. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Wednesday, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread westward across Belize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited. Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development by the weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
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atlantic
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-22 01:29:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212329 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with the remnants of Harvey. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the system lacks a well-defined circulation and surface pressures are not falling at this time. Although this system could still become better organized while approaching the Yucatan peninsula tonight and early Tuesday, tropical cyclone formation is not expected until the disturbance moves into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday where conditions are favorable. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward primarily across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Only slow development of this system is anticipated during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas and then turns northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-21 19:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 211734 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased today in association with the remnants of Harvey, but the system still lacks a well-defined center of circulation. Some development of this disturbance is still possible before it reaches the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The system is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for redevelopment into a tropical cyclone. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A trough of low pressure located near the central Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas and then turns northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-21 13:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 211133 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Harvey, continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Some development of this system is still possible before it reaches the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The disturbance is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for redevelopment. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. The Air Force reconnaissance aircraft mission scheduled for today has been canceled. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A trough of low pressure located near the southeastern and central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the Bahamas. Conditions could become a little more conducive for development later in the week when the system is near Florida or the adjacent waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A large area of showers and thunderstorms located about 800 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a surface trough that is interacting with a large upper-level low over the central Atlantic. Upper-level winds are not conducive for development of this system while it moves northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-08-21 07:14:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 210514 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Harvey, is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the west-central Caribbean Sea. Some development of this system is still possible before it reaches the coast of Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula early Tuesday. The disturbance is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday, where environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for redevelopment. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to spread westward across northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend southeastward toward Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development of this system during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph toward the northern Bahamas and southern Florida. Conditions could become a little more conducive for development later in the week when the system is near Florida or the adjacent waters of the western Atlantic or eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 900 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with a surface trough that is interacting with a large upper-level low over the central Atlantic. Upper-level winds are not conducive for development of this system while it moves northwestward over the central Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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