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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-06 07:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 060554 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea have changed little. However, further development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system reaches the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the Bay of Campeche by midweek. Development would likely not occur if the system moves inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not re-emerge over water. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little during the past several hours. Some slow development is still possible during the next two to three days before the system encounters less favorable environmental conditions by the middle of the week. This system is expected to move generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-06 01:26:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 052326 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea are showing signs of organization. Additional development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system reaches the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the Bay of Campeche during the middle part of next week. Development would likely not occur if the system moves inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not re-emerge over water. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become a little better organized during the past 24 hours. Some additional slow development is possible during the next two to three days before the system encounters less favorable environmental conditions during the middle part of next week. This system is expected to move generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-05 19:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 051753 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea are beginning to show some signs of organization, and satellite wind data indicate that the wave is producing a small area of winds that are just below tropical storm force. Additional development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system reaches the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the Bay of Campeche during the middle part of next week. Development would likely not occur if the system moves inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not re-emerge over water. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends more than a thousand miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although this system has failed to consolidate so far, environmental conditions appear conducive enough to support some development while this system moves west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-05 13:29:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 051129 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low pressure extending more than a thousand miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have not shown signs of organization during the past day or two. However, environmental conditions still appear conducive for this system to consolidate and become better organized, and a tropical depression could form next week while moving west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased overnight near a tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and some development is possible over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday, and then again during the middle part of next week while it is over the Bay of Campeche. Development would likely not occur if the system moves inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not re-emerge over water. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2017-08-05 07:22:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 050522 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms extending from the Cabo Verde Islands southwestward across the tropical Atlantic are associated with an elongated area of low pressure. This system remains poorly organized, but environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for this system to consolidate, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the south-central Caribbean Sea. The wave is moving westward at 15 mph and development, if any, during the next day or two will likely to be slow. Conditions could become a little more favorable for tropical cyclone formation early next week if the disturbance moves over the southern Bay of Campeche. There is also a possibility that the wave moves over Central America, and in that case no development is anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

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