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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2016-09-28 07:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 280543 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A strong tropical wave is located about 170 miles east of Barbados. This disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force, and the associated thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today. The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and is expected to pass over the Windward Islands later today, and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Thursday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system again later this morning. Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consult products issued by your national meteorological service, which could include tropical storm warnings or watches. Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or a tropical cyclone, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Leeward Islands, beginning this morning and continuing through tonight and early Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico just to the southeast of Tampico, Mexico, is associated with a weak low pressure system that is drifting westward. Proximity to land and unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to inhibit any significant development before this disturbance moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Stewart
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atlantic
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tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2016-09-28 01:27:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 272327 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A strong tropical wave is located about 250 miles east of Barbados. This disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force, and the associated thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or Wednesday. The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and is expected to pass over the Windward Islands on Wednesday morning, and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea late Wednesday and Thursday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system again on Wednesday morning. Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consult products issued by your national meteorological service, which could include tropical storm warnings or watches. Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or a tropical cyclone, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Leeward Islands, beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2016-09-27 22:21:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 272020 TWOAT SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 420 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss findings of the reconnaissance aircraft mission. Updated: Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave located about 300 miles east of Barbados does not have a closed surface circulation. The system is producing winds to near tropical storm force and the thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form tonight or Wednesday. The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and is expected to pass over the Windward Islands on Wednesday morning, and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea late Wednesday and Thursday. Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consult products issued by your national meteorological service, which could include tropical storm warnings or watches. Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Leeward Islands, beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2016-09-27 19:47:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271747 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 350 miles east of Barbados continue to show signs of organization. Buoy data indicate that the system is producing winds to near tropical storm force, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is just beginning its mission to determine if the system has a closed circulation. Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. This system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and is expected to pass over the Windward Islands on Wednesday morning, and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea late Wednesday and Thursday. Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consult products issued by your national meteorological service, which could include tropical storm warnings or watches. Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Leeward Islands, beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2016-09-27 13:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 271146 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a well-organized tropical wave located about 475 miles east-southeast of Barbados. However, the low appears to lack a closed circulation at this time. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form later today or tonight while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since warnings and watches could be required at any time. Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles, beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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