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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-09-27 07:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 270533 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continue to show signs of organization, and a tropical cyclone could be forming. If this trend continues, then a tropical depression or a tropical storm would likely form later today while the system moves west-northwestward to westward at about 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings could be required at any time. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Some shower activity continues in association with the remnants of Lisa, located about 600 miles southwest of the Azores. This system is expected to merge with a cold front later today before regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-09-27 01:23:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 262323 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 700 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands are gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward near 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Some shower activity continues in association with the remnants of Lisa, located about 600 miles southwest of the Azores. This system is expected to merge with a cold front on Tuesday before regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-09-26 19:54:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 261753 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 950 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands have increased and become slightly better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Shower activity has redeveloped in association with the remnants of Lisa, located about 700 miles southwest of the Azores. This system is expected to merge with a cold front on Tuesday before regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-09-26 13:43:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 261143 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around mid-week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds should spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Shower activity increased overnight in association with the remnants of Lisa. Although earlier scatterometer data indicated winds to tropical storm force, the system's circulation was somewhat elongated. Unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to cause the circulation to open up into a trough of low pressure later today without the possibility of regeneration into a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-09-26 07:27:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 260527 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a large low pressure area located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands has increased and become a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Windward Islands, the southeastern and south-central Caribbean Sea, as well as the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

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