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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Graphics
2021-06-16 16:48:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 14:48:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 14:48:45 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-06-16 16:48:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 161448 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery suggests that Carlos's center has become less defined since last evening's scatterometer passes, and the overall circulation is losing definition as it becomes embedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Despite the few sporadic bursts of convection that have been occurring, the system has been unable to generate persistent organized deep convection near its center for quite some time, and Carlos is therefore being designated as a remnant low with maximum winds of 25 kt. Moderate westerly shear and ingestion of drier air should cause the remnant low to weaken further, and likely dissipate within the ITCZ in 2 to 3 days. Geostationary and microwave imagery indicates that Carlos has sunk a little farther south than previously estimated, and its 12-hour heading has been toward the west-southwest (240/6 kt). The bulk of the track models show that the remnant low should resume a westward motion later today and then maintain a steady west to west-northwest heading through Friday, steered by the low-level trade winds. The new NHC official track forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the GFS-ECMWF consensus, and due to the southward-adjusted initial position, is about a half a degree south of the previous forecast. This is the last advisory on Carlos. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 8.6N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 17/0000Z 8.6N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1200Z 8.7N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z 9.0N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 9.2N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-06-16 16:47:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 161447 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 1500 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-16 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 the center of Carlos was located near 8.6, -135.3 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Public Advisory Number 16
2021-06-16 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 161447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 800 AM PDT Wed Jun 16 2021 ...CARLOS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.6N 135.3W ABOUT 1950 MI...3140 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlos was located near latitude 8.6 North, longitude 135.3 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, with that heading at a similar forward speed continuing through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and the remnant low is expected to dissipate by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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