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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2021-06-15 22:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152039 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 5 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlos (EP3/EP032021)

2021-06-15 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 the center of Carlos was located near 9.8, -133.5 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 13

2021-06-15 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 15 2021 ...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 133.5W ABOUT 1800 MI...2900 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 133.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward motion along with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or tomorrow and dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 13

2021-06-15 22:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152038 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 2100 UTC TUE JUN 15 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 133.5W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 133.5W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 9.6N 134.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.4N 135.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.5N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.7N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.0N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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