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Tropical Storm BILL Public Advisory Number 4
2015-06-16 22:46:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 162046 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...BILL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 96.8W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Port Aransas and north of San Luis Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 96.8 West. Bill is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Bill is expected to become a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center, mainly to the northeast and east of the center. During the past hour, a wind gust to 41 mph (67 km/h) was measured at Palacios and Galveston, Texas. Several offshore oil rigs continue to report sustained tropical-storm-force winds. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area to the northeast and east of the center. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Recent reports indicate that the water level at Port Lavaca, Texas, is about 3.5 feet above normal. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur over parts of southeast and east central Texas and western Louisiana tonight through early Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm BILL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-06-16 22:46:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 162046 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 2100 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GALVESTON TX 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AUSTIN TX 34 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-06-16 22:43:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 162042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 2100 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS AND NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 96.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 96.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 96.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 29.9N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.0N 97.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.6N 97.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 34.7N 95.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 36.7N 92.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 39.0N 86.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 96.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm BILL Public Advisory Number 3A
2015-06-16 19:58:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161758 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 100 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...CENTER OF BILL OVER MATAGORDA ISLAND TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 96.7W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ROCKPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 96.7 West. Bill is inland over Matagorda Island and is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest by tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening will begin later this afternoon now that the center is inland. Bill is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. During the past hour, an automated observing station at Port O'Connor reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area and will likely continue into the evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Recent reports indicate that the water level at Port Lavaca, Texas, is about 3 feet above normal. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of eastern Texas and far western Louisiana today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm BILL (AT2/AL022015)
2015-06-16 18:56:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BILL MAKES LANDFALL ON MATAGORDA ISLAND... As of 11:55 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of BILL was located near 28.2, -96.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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