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Tropical Storm BILL Forecast Advisory Number 3

2015-06-16 16:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 161455 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 1500 UTC TUE JUN 16 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 96.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 96.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.7N 97.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.6N 97.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.4N 97.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.9N 96.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.8N 92.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 39.3N 87.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 96.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm BILL (AT2/AL022015)

2015-06-16 13:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BILL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 the center of BILL was located near 28.2, -96.0 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm BILL Public Advisory Number 2A

2015-06-16 13:37:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161137 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015 700 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BILL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF TEXAS... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 96.0W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 96.0 West. Bill is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Bill is expected to make landfall in the warning area along the Texas coast later this morning and move inland over south-central Texas this afternoon and tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little additional strengthening is expected before landfall occurs in a few hours. Weakening is forecast after the center moves inland later today, and Bill is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. During the past hour, a WeatherFlow observing station at Matagorda Bay reported a wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance data is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4 inches over western Arkansas and southern Missouri, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area within the next hour or two. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across portions of eastern Texas and far western Louisiana today and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm BILL Graphics

2015-06-16 11:09:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 08:50:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 09:04:46 GMT

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Tropical Storm BILL Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2015-06-16 11:08:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 16 Jun 2015 09:08:04 GMT

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