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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 22

2018-09-30 16:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 188 WTPZ25 KNHC 301431 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 118.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 118.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 118.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.9N 117.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 116.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.3N 115.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.8N 114.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.5N 111.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)

2018-09-30 14:02:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 the center of Rosa was located near 23.8, -118.7 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 21A

2018-09-30 14:02:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 912 WTPZ35 KNHC 301201 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 21A...Retransmitted NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 500 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018 ...ROSA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 118.7W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM PDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 118.7 West. Rosa is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm by this evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Over the next few days, Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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