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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)

2018-09-29 04:41:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 the center of Rosa was located near 18.4, -118.0 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 16

2018-09-29 04:41:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 833 WTPZ35 KNHC 290241 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018 ...ROSA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 118.0W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 118.0 West. Rosa is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast with a slight increase in forward speed by early next week. On the forecast track the center of Rosa will be approaching Baja California on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches from Baja California State into northwest Mexico from late in the weekend into midweek with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. For the Desert Southwest, amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts to 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts and landslides in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, the southern Baja California Peninsula, and southern California late this week and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2018-09-29 04:41:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 765 FOPZ15 KNHC 290241 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) X(15) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 3(28) X(28) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 34 5 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 25N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) 15N 120W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 48 16(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 20N 120W 50 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X 6( 6) 14(20) 13(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 16

2018-09-29 04:41:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 270 WTPZ25 KNHC 290241 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.0W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......110NE 160SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 118.0W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 118.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.3N 118.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.1N 117.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.9N 116.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 36.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 118.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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