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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-09-26 22:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 178 WTPZ45 KNHC 262032 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 Rosa continues to strengthen this afternoon. Improved deep convective banding features with -83C cloud tops are evident in both visible and microwave images, particularly in the east semicircle. The initial intensity is bumped up to 70 kt and is a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. It still appears likely that Rosa will continue to quickly strengthen through this evening while it moves over warm oceanic temperatures and in a high moisture and low shear atmospheric environment. The official forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models, and shows strengthening, at a slower pace, after the RI period. Beyond 48 hours, steady weakening is forecast due to decreasing sea surface temperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and a high statically stable surrounding environment. Rosa is currently moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, within the mid-level easterly steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico westward over the eastern Pacific. At around day 3, Rosa is expect to move northwestward and then northward day 4 in response to a mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest. The along track spread beyond day 3 continues to be an issue with the GFS global and HWRF hurricane model indicating a much more faster north to north-northeast motion than the slower European model cluster. In this scenario, the NHC forecast will remain near the better performing various multi-model consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.5N 112.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 16.7N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 16.9N 115.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 17.2N 116.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 17.8N 117.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 20.1N 119.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 23.3N 119.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 26.6N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-26 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 20:32:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 20:32:16 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-26 22:30:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 the center of Rosa was located near 16.5, -112.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-26 16:40:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 14:40:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 14:40:12 GMT
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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-09-26 16:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 778 FOPZ15 KNHC 261437 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 1500 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 1 27(28) 15(43) 3(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) ISLA CLARION 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 1 26(27) 13(40) 2(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 6(17) 3(20) 1(21) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 55(62) 20(82) 2(84) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 23(51) 1(52) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 16(30) 1(31) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 25(44) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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