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Tropical Storm DANNY Graphics
2015-08-23 22:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Aug 2015 20:43:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Aug 2015 20:40:44 GMT
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danny
Tropical Storm DANNY Forecast Discussion Number 22
2015-08-23 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 232041 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 Danny has become decidedly less organized since earlier today. The low-level circulation center became exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection, and that deep convection has become rather ragged-looking. The current intensity estimate is set to 35 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. This is also consistent with recent data buoy observations. Danny should remain in an environment of moderately strong shear and dry mid-tropospheric air for the next few days. These unfavorable factors should cause weakening to a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours, and dissipation thereafter. If the global models are correct, however, Danny could dissipate sooner than shown here. Danny continues to move a little south of the previously estimated track, and the initial motion estimate is 260/14. This is likely due to the fact that it is becoming a shallow circulation. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Danny should provide a continued westward or a little north of westward motion for the next 72 hours or so. The track models have shifted even a little farther to the south on this cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted accordingly. This is close to the dynamical model consensus. Although tropical storm watches or warnings are not in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy, the government of France has issued a warning for heavy rain and strong winds for those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.6N 59.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.8N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.2N 63.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 16.6N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 17.2N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 18.6N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm DANNY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2015-08-23 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2015 000 FONT14 KNHC 232041 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 12 18(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) AVES 34 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DOMINICA 34 5 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm DANNY (AT4/AL042015)
2015-08-23 22:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANNY WEAKENING WHILE IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 23 the center of DANNY was located near 15.6, -59.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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danny
Tropical Storm DANNY Public Advisory Number 22
2015-08-23 22:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232040 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015 ...DANNY WEAKENING WHILE IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 59.0W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 59.0 West. Danny is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight or early Monday, and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible elsewhere over the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe northward overnight. RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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