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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2021-10-02 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 022036 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 41
2021-10-02 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 022036 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 58.2W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 160SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 330SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 58.2W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 58.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.8N 56.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.6N 53.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 190SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 40.8N 49.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 44.7N 44.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 10NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT...190NE 240SE 250SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 49.3N 40.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 330SE 380SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 51.6N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 120SE 110SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 480SE 480SW 320NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 53.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 60.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 58.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-10-02 16:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 14:51:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 14:51:50 GMT
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 40
2021-10-02 16:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 021451 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Sam has been an impressive hurricane during the past several days. The latest satellite imagery shows it remains a powerful system, with a well-defined eye and symmetric cloud pattern. In fact, since the plane left overnight, the eye has actually warmed, with little change in the eyewall convection. Thus the initial intensity will stay 115 kt, above the latest satellite classifications, but consistent with the earlier aircraft data and low bias of the Dvorak technique for much of the this storm. Sam is now in the top 10 for consecutive days as a category 4 hurricane or greater in the historical record, about the same as Matthew 2016. The hurricane is forecast to gradually lose strength during the next 36 hours or so while it remains over marginally warm waters, but in fairly light shear. In fact, some of the guidance decrease the shear overnight, which should allow Sam to keep much of its strength, provided it doesn't undertake an eyewall cycle. The new intensity forecast is higher in the first day or so, consistent with the latest model solutions. In about 2 days, Sam will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and in 3 days is expected to spectacularly transition into a large hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone over the far north Atlantic. No changes were made to the end of the intensity forecast. Sam has turned northeastward at about 15 kt. The hurricane should accelerate later this weekend due to increasing flow between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a large mid- to upper-level low over Atlantic Canada. By midweek the system is forecast to turn more to the north-northeast as it becomes a spoke in a very large extratropical low over the far North Atlantic. The new forecast has shifted somewhat eastward during the first couple of days but ends up very near the last advisory by day 5. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States coast and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 33.9N 59.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 35.6N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 37.4N 55.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 39.2N 52.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 41.8N 47.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 50.0N 38.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/1200Z 53.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-10-02 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STEADFAST SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 WINDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 2 the center of Sam was located near 33.9, -59.3 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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