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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2021-10-02 04:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 870 FONT13 KNHC 020240 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 3(29) X(29) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 38
2021-10-02 04:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...CORE OF SAM PASSING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... ...SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 61.2W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 61.2 West. Sam is now moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected by Saturday night, with this motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda during the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds are now near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane into Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Several automated stations on Bermuda have recently reported wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph (65 to 75 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda tonight and early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 38
2021-10-02 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 020239 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 61.2W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 315SE 300SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 61.2W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 33.5N 60.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.8N 58.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.7N 55.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.6N 52.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 43.0N 47.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 47.2N 43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 50.5N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 54.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-10-02 01:48:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 23:48:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 21:23:05 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-10-02 01:48:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CORE OF SAM NOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT... ...SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Fri Oct 1 the center of Sam was located near 30.7, -61.5 with movement N at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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