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Hurricane Laura Graphics
2020-08-26 04:51:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 02:51:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 03:25:11 GMT
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Hurricane Laura Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-08-26 04:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2020 02:50:52 GMT
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-08-26 04:50:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260250 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 Laura's cloud pattern is becoming better organized on satellite images, with a banding feature over the eastern portion of the circulation and an expanding central dense overcast with cloud tops of -80C or colder. The upper-level outflow is becoming better established over the northwestern quadrant. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have increased to near 80 kt, and the central pressure is falling. The hurricane is expected to remain over SSTs near 30 deg C until it nears the coast, with only moderate vertical shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a significant probability for a 25-30 kt increase in strength during the next 24 hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. This is also between the simple and corrected intensity model consensus predictions. Laura will weaken rapidly after landfall, but it will likely bring hurricane-force winds well inland over extreme western Louisiana and eastern Texas. Aircraft and satellite fixes show a continued west-northwestward track with an initial motion estimate near 300/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. The hurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and north over the next day or two as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high and into a weakness into the subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period the cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast and move with increasing forward speed while embedded within the westerlies. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also very close to the simple and corrected consensus track model predictions. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 36 h is around 60 miles and the average intensity error is close to 10 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves producing potentially catastrophic damage from San Luis Pass, Texas, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, as water levels will begin to rise on Wednesday. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Wednesday night in the warning area from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and the strongest winds associated with Laura's eyewall will occur somewhere within this area. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected to begin Wednesday night into Thursday across far eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to isolated moderate river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and localized flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 25.2N 89.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 26.5N 91.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 28.7N 93.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 31.2N 93.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/0000Z 33.7N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/1200Z 36.0N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/0000Z 37.2N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 30/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0000Z 42.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-26 04:50:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LAURA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 the center of Laura was located near 25.2, -89.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 25
2020-08-26 04:50:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260250 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020 ...LAURA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 89.5W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 89.5 West. Laura is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue overnight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday evening and move inland near those areas Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf of Mexico recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (86 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...9-14 ft Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and northward into much of Arkansas. Over the lower to middle Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding. By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region. This rainfall could lead to localized flash and urban flooding along small streams. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday evening into Wednesday night over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should continue into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Louisiana and are expected to reach the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico overnight and on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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