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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 29
2020-08-27 04:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270253 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 93.2W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 93.2 West. Laura is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by early Thursday, and a northward motion should continue through the day. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura will make landfall along the southwest Louisiana coast within the next few hours and move inland within that area early Thursday. The center of Laura is forecast to move over northwestern Louisiana on Thursday, across Arkansas Thursday night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is likely before landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) were recently reported by a National Ocean Service station at Texas Point, Texas, at Sabine Pass. A wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently reported at Cameron, Louisiana. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter observations is 939 mb (27.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake...15-20 ft Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine Lake...10-15 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday morning, with catastrophic wind damage expected where Laura's eyewall moves onshore. Tropical storm conditions are moving onshore along the coast of Louisiana within the tropical storm warning area and are expected to spread northward within the warning areas overnight. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 18 inches. Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches. Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for tornadoes will continue on Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2020-08-27 04:54:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 270253 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) CHARLOTTESVIL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DANVILLE VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 7 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 61 13(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 9 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 50 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) LAFAYETTE LA 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) NEW IBERIA LA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 82 16(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SHREVEPORT LA 50 7 59(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SHREVEPORT LA 64 1 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) FORT POLK LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 50 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 64 80 7(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 64 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 50 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) JASPER TX 64 80 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) KOUNTZE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KOUNTZE TX 50 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) KOUNTZE TX 64 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 62 X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GALVESTON TX 34 45 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) HOUSTON TX 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AUSTIN TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Hurricane Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-27 03:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...900 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 9:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 the center of Laura was located near 28.8, -93.1 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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Hurricane Laura Update Statement
2020-08-27 03:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT63 KNHC 270152 TCUAT3 Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 900 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...900 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at Cypremort Point, Louisiana, on Vermilion Bay. SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 93.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg/Pasch
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 28A
2020-08-27 01:42:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 262342 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 700 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...WINDS INCREASING AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE LAURA TAKES AIM AT THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 92.9W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Freeport Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Laura was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 92.9 West. Laura is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, and a northward motion should continue on Thursday. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura will approach the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts this evening and move inland within that area tonight. The center of Laura is forecast to move over northwestern Louisiana tomorrow, across Arkansas Thursday night, and over the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Laura is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight before Laura reaches the northwest Gulf coast overnight. Rapid weakening is expected after Laura moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently reported at Cypremort Point, Louisiana, on Vermilion Bay. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. Storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will arrive within the warning areas well in advance of Laura's center. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the next few hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake...15-20 ft Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine Lake...10-15 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday, with catastrophic wind damage expected where Laura's eyewall moves onshore tonight. Tropical storm conditions are moving onshore along the coast of Louisiana within the tropical storm warning area and are expected to spread northwestward within the warning areas this evening. Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday. RAINFALL: From this evening through Friday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Across the northwestern Gulf Coast from far southwest Louisiana and the Golden Triangle of Southeast Texas: 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 18 inches. Across central and the rest of western Louisiana into far eastern Texas: 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches. Across much of Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches. This rainfall will cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. By Friday into Saturday, Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Across the mid-Mississippi and portions of the Tennessee Valley, Lower Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. Across the Mid-Atlantic Region: 1 to 3 inches. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are expected this evening through tonight over Louisiana, far southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes will continue into Thursday across Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. SURF: Swells produced by Laura are affecting the U.S. Gulf coast from the west coast of Florida to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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