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Tropical Storm Pamela Graphics
2021-10-11 17:01:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Oct 2021 15:01:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Oct 2021 15:01:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-10-11 17:00:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 111500 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 17(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 23(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 27(58) X(58) X(58) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 19(22) 31(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 71(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 10(50) X(50) X(50) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) X(28) X(28) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 66(67) 20(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 20N 110W 50 X 14(14) 26(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 110W 64 X 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 23(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-11 16:59:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAMELA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 the center of Pamela was located near 16.8, -108.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 6
2021-10-11 16:59:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111459 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 108.1W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya southward to Escuinapa. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Bahia Tempehuaya northward to Altata, and also from Escuinapa southward to San Blas, including all the Isla Marias archipelago. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for extreme southern Baja California Sur from Los Barilles southward to Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to San Blas * Isla Marias * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required tonight for portions of the current Watch areas by this afternoon or evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 108.1 West. Pamela is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on west-central mainland Mexico Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Wednesday: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur... 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-10-11 16:57:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111457 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA SOUTHWARD TO ESCUINAPA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA NORTHWARD TO ALTATA...AND ALSO FROM ESCUINAPA SOUTHWARD TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING ALL THE ISLA MARIAS ARCHIPELAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO SAN BLAS * ISLA MARIAS * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.3N 107.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.7N 104.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.1N 100.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 108.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 11/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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