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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-10-12 04:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 Pamela continues to be affected by some modest northwesterly mid-level shear that has caused the low-level center to be located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection. This was evident in an earlier AMSR2 microwave image that arrived shortly after the release of the previous NHC advisory package. Recent objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers still support an intensity of around 60 kt, and that value is maintained as the initial wind speed for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm late tomorrow morning and early afternoon to better provide a better assessment of Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field. The guidance suggests that the shear that has been plaguing Pamela should relax during the next 12-24 hours, allowing for strengthening. Nearly all of the statistical and dynamical model intensity guidance calls for strengthening, but they have trended toward a lower peak intensity primarily due to the fact that Pamela so far has not strengthened as much as expected. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Pamela to become a hurricane overnight or early Tuesday, and shows the system nearing major hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of mainland Mexico early Wednesday. Although the official forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance, it is supported by the GFS model which has been consistent in significantly deepening Pamela during the cyclone's approach to Mexico on Tuesday and Tuesday night. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur as the system moves over the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico, and Pamela is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low or dissipate by Thursday. Pamela is moving north-northwestward or 335/7 kt. The track forecast philosophy again remains unchanged this advisory. The cyclone is forecast to turn northward tonight as it reaches the western portion of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. A faster northeastward motion is expected by late Tuesday as Pamela recurves ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough moving into northwestern Mexico. The track guidance is in very good agreement on the overall evolution of the steering pattern, but there are still some differences in how quickly Pamela accelerates northeastward on Tuesday. Therefore, the NHC forecast is once again close to the various multi-model consensus aids. Although the cyclone could dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it reaches the southwestern coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life- threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur Tuesday and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.9N 108.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 19.2N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 23.1N 106.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 26.1N 103.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 14/1200Z 29.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-10-12 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 120237 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 10(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 8( 9) 15(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 26(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 24(25) 42(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X 5( 5) 81(86) 7(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) 46(46) 19(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) 21(21) 14(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 35 29(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 20N 110W 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-12 04:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAMELA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED BEFORE PAMELA REACHES MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 the center of Pamela was located near 17.9, -108.9 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 8
2021-10-12 04:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 120236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021 ...PAMELA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED BEFORE PAMELA REACHES MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 108.9W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Isla Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast to occur later tonight into Tuesday, followed by a faster northeastward motion by Tuesday night. On the current track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is forecast to make landfall in southwestern mainland Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane overnight or early Tuesday, and be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Tuesday night or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-10-12 04:37:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 278 WTPZ21 KNHC 120236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC TUE OCT 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLA MARIAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.2N 109.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.1N 106.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.1N 103.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.5N 99.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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