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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-27 13:36:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 11:36:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 09:49:55 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-27 13:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM NORA SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, AND MICHOACAN... As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Nora was located near 14.8, -103.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 7A
2021-08-27 13:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 076 WTPZ34 KNHC 271136 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 700 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM NORA SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, AND MICHOACAN... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 103.7W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 103.7 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a northwestward or north-northwestward motion on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico today and tonight and pass very near the coast Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-27 11:49:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 09:49:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 09:49:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-27 11:00:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270900 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 The convective structure of Nora this morning continues to look a bit disheveled, with the majority of the deeper convection still located to the south and west of the mean low-level circulation center due to 15-20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. More recently, however, there are a few deeper convective tops attempting to develop on the northeast side of the broad vortex. A helpful ASCAT-A pass at 0307 UTC revealed that the circulation remains quite elongated, with two distinct mesovorticies, one to the southwest embedded in the convection, and another to the northeast. The current center estimate roughly splits the difference between these two points. The peak wind retrieval from that scatterometer pass was also 43-kt with a few higher rain-contaminated values. Assuming a bit of instrument undersampling, the current intensity is set to 45-kt for this advisory. Nora motion continues to gradually bend rightward, with the latest motion estimate at 300/10 kt. As mentioned in the previous discussion, mid-level ridging to the north of Nora is gradually being eroded by a shortwave trough propagating westward across the Rocky Mountains. This pattern is expected to create a weakness in the ridge that should allow Nora to begin gaining more latitude later today. While the models are in decent agreement with this poleward turn, there still remains some spread on how sharp this turn will be, and whether or not the tropical cyclone will directly impact the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latest deterministic ECMWF and UKMET runs continue to forecast Nora to remain offshore of mainland Mexico, while the GFS and Canadian models explicitly show Nora making landfall in 36-48 hours. While the track guidance envelope has narrowed some, the multi-model consensus aids have changed very little this cycle. Therefore, the latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and lies close to the HCCA consensus aid and GFEX, which is a simple blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast solutions. This forecast track still brings Nora close to Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California in around 72 hours, though uncertainty by that time frame remains high, related to the degree of land interaction Nora will encounter prior to that point. Nora continues to be impacted by northeasterly vertical wind shear, though this shear is still forecast to subside over the next 12-24 hours. As long as Nora stays far enough offshore, the reduction in shear in combination with warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures and ample deep-layer moisture favor strengthening. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast still indicates intensification with Nora forecast to become a Hurricane on Saturday. This intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, especially after 36 hours, because a subset of the guidance aids (HWRF, HMON, GFS) bring Nora inland after this time, substantially disrupting the storm's circulation. However, since the latest NHC forecast track keeps Nora far enough offshore, I have elected to follow closer to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean intensity aids, which show continued intensification after 36 hours. After 72 hours, weakening is anticipated due to possible land interaction with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur. Needless to say, this intensity forecast hinges on the track of Nora remaining offshore of mainland Mexico, and this intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, especially after 36 hours. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.6N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 15.3N 104.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 16.6N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 20.6N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 23.2N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR 96H 31/0600Z 24.9N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR 120H 01/0600Z 27.1N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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