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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-27 07:51:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 1:00 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Nora was located near 14.2, -103.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-08-27 07:51:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270551 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...NORA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 103.0W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the west-central coast of Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 103.0 West. Nora is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a northwestward or north-northwestward motion on Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nora will approach the southwestern coast of Mexico Friday and Friday night and pass very near the coast Saturday and Saturday night. Nora will then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that Nora's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Nora is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday. Nora is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area beginning this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nora is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Nora Graphics
2021-08-27 04:51:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 02:51:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 02:51:59 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-27 04:51:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270251 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 A large area of deep convection has developed over the southern and western portions of Nora's circulation over the past several hours. Almost all of the convection is displaced to the southwest of Nora's center by some moderate northeasterly shear. Based on the slightly improved satellite appearance of the cyclone, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt for this advisory. This is in best agreement with the objective UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates of around 40 kt. Nora has turned a bit to the right and accelerated slightly this evening, and it is now moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. The mid-level ridge over the southern United States that is steering Nora is being eroded by a shortwave trough over the Rocky Mountains. In response, Nora is expected to turn toward the northwest on Friday and then the north-northwest on Saturday. This will bring the center of the cyclone close to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The ECMWF and UKMET as well as almost all the ECMWF ensemble members keep Nora offshore, passing just offshore of Cabo Corrientes before moving toward the entrance to the Gulf of California and Baja California Sur. However, the GFS and many of its ensemble members still show Nora moving inland over southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Overall, the multi-model track guidance consensus changed little this cycle, and so the official NHC track forecast remains very close to the previous one. The extended forecast still shows Nora moving near or over Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California on days 4 and 5. However, it is worth noting that the degree of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast is above average. The moderate northeasterly wind shear over Nora is expected to diminish over the next 12-24 h, which should allow the cyclone to intensify within a moist and unstable environment over SSTs around 29 deg C. Thus, Nora is forecast to strengthen over the next few days and become a hurricane on Saturday. Of course, this is highly dependent on Nora remaining offshore and not moving inland over mainland Mexico. Since the NHC track forecast keeps Nora offshore, the official intensity forecast lies on the high end of the intensity guidance and is closest to the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models. In this case, the normally reliable intensity consensus aids are of limited use since several of the consensus members bring Nora inland. Weakening is forecast on days 4-5 due to expected land interaction with Baja California Sur. The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning northward from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, and issued a Tropical Storm Watch north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas. Additional watches and warnings may be required on Friday. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while it is near the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for portions of that area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 14.1N 102.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 14.9N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 16.3N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 18.0N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 21.5N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 22.7N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 24.4N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR 120H 01/0000Z 26.0N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nora (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-27 04:49:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 the center of Nora was located near 14.1, -102.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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