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Tropical Depression Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2021-08-16 22:48:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 932 FONT12 KNHC 162048 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 9(26) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) 1(25) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 1(37) X(37) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 27(40) X(40) X(40) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) KINGSTON 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)

2021-08-16 22:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...GRACE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Grace was located near 17.9, -72.4 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 14

2021-08-16 22:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 162048 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... ...GRACE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 72.4W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are possible tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 72.4 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move near the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti through tonight, move between Jamaica and southeastern Cuba on Tuesday, near the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and approach the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to regain tropical storm status on Tuesday. Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti this evening into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-08-16 22:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 162047 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA... GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 72.4W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 72.4W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 74.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.9N 77.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.6N 80.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.2N 83.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.9N 86.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 21.6N 89.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.4N 95.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 22.4N 98.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 72.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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