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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-15 22:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152051 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 An earlier ASCAT pass over Grace suggested that the maximum winds were 25-30 kt and this has been confirmed by observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Aircraft and scatterometer data also suggest that the circulation is elongated and disorganized. Based on these data, the system is being downgraded to a 30-kt depression at this time. Since the system is below storm strength and is passing by Puerto Rico, the Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been discontinued. The island of Hispaniola is kept under a Tropical Storm Watch given the possibility that the system could restrengthen tonight or tomorrow morning before moving over land. Most of the reliable guidance shows little change in strength over the next 2-3 days. This seems reasonable since the circulation will be interacting with the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola and Cuba for the next 72 hours. The official intensity forecast is near or a little above the DSHIPS and LGEM guidance during that time. Some restrengthening is possible later in the forecast period when the system is expected to move over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the global models are not very bullish on intensification in 4-5 days, perhaps due to drier air. The system has moved mainly westward today, but the track models are generally in agreement on a west-northwestward motion over the forecast period. This is consistent with a well-defined mid-level ridge staying in place over the southwestern Atlantic and across Florida during this week. The official track forecast has been shifted a little south of the previous one, following the multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. 3. There is a risk of some wind and rainfall impacts across the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty is much higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.0N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.6N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 18.2N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 19.2N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0600Z 21.0N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 18/1800Z 22.1N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 24.0N 87.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 25.0N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-15 22:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 15 the center of Grace was located near 17.0, -67.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 10
2021-08-15 22:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 152050 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 67.3W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM ESE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch from the southern Haitian border to Samana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 67.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A generally west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today into Tuesday: Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and will reach portions of Hispaniola tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-08-15 22:51:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 152050 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-15 22:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 152050 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 67.3W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 67.3W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 66.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.6N 68.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.2N 71.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 73.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.2N 75.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 78.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.1N 81.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 24.0N 87.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 25.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 67.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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