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Tropical Storm GRACE Graphics
2015-09-07 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2015 08:39:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2015 08:50:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-09-07 10:38:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070838 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 AM AST MON SEP 07 2015 Deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Grace overnight, and an earlier SSMI microwave overpass showed that the convection was organized in a couple of bands around the center. There are indications in geostationary satellite imagery that the shear is beginning to increase as the cirrus outflow has become restricted over the western portion of the system. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, which is in agreement with subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Little change in strength is expected today. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by tonight as westerly vertical wind shear increases and dry mid-level air over the tropical Atlantic impinges on the circulation. The shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 kt by late Tuesday, and weakening is expected to begin by that time. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the LGEM model and the intensity consensus. Given the strong southwesterly upper-level winds expected near the eastern Caribbean late in the period, it is quite possible that Grace will degenerate to a tropical wave before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Grace continues to move westward or 275/14 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move generally westward to the south of a large mid- to upper-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast is once again essentially an update of the previous NHC advisory. The new track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 13.5N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 13.7N 36.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 13.9N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 14.2N 42.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 14.7N 45.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 15.5N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 16.2N 57.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 16.8N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-07 10:38:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE CONTINUES WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 7 the center of GRACE was located near 13.5, -33.9 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm GRACE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2015-09-07 10:38:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 070838 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Advisory Number 8
2015-09-07 10:37:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070837 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 33.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 33.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 33.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.7N 36.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 39.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.2N 42.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.7N 45.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.5N 51.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 16.2N 57.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.8N 62.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 33.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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