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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-09-07 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 32.5W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 32.5W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 31.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.5N 34.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.8N 37.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.0N 40.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.3N 50.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 16.1N 56.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 17.2N 62.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 32.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm GRACE Graphics
2015-09-06 22:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 20:40:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 20:52:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-09-06 22:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 062041 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 Grace is a fairly well-organized, compact tropical cyclone with banding features and well-defined upper-level outflow to the north and south of the system. Deep convection has been rather limited today, but recent imagery shows some cold cloud tops developing near the center. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Since the vertical wind shear is expected to remain modest for the next 24 hours or so, there is window of opportunity for short-term strengthening. Within 36 hours, the dynamical guidance shows the shear increasing to over 20 kt, and this should cause a weakening trend beginning around that time. The official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus for the first half of the period and close to, or a little below, the consensus thereafter. It is worth noting that the GFS shows significant weakening of the cyclone in 4 to 5 days, with the ECMWF showing dissipation by that time. The storm has accelerated a bit and is now moving at about 280/13. For the next several days, Grace should continue to move within a moderate low- to mid-level easterly flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge. The track guidance models are noticeably faster than they were on the previous cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted accordingly. The NHC track is not far from the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 13.2N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 13.3N 33.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 13.6N 36.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 13.9N 39.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.3N 42.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 15.0N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 16.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 17.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm GRACE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-09-06 22:40:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 062040 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-06 22:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 6 the center of GRACE was located near 13.2, -31.2 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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