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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 16A
2019-08-28 14:10:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281210 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 16A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 Corrected to edit wording in changes to watches and warnings ...DORIAN NEARING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 64.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has modified the watches and warnings and now a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Isla Saona to Samana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 64.1 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. Dorian is then forecast to move to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and near or to the east of the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Although weakening is possible after Dorian moves across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the storm is forecast to strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A wind gust to near 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. An Air Force reconnaissance plane just reported an estimated minimum central pressure of 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Western Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Kitts to Anguilla...1 to 4 inches. Southern and Eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Northwestern Puerto Rico...1 to 4 inches. Haiti and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches Southern Bahamas...1 to 4 inches. Northern Bahamas...3 to 6 inches. Florida Peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are still possible in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the Lesser Antilles. Swells are expected to increase later this morning across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 16A
2019-07-14 13:40:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141140 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 700 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 ...BARRY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING RAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 93.4W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF PEASON RIDGE LOUISIANA ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City to Cameron A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Mouth of Atchafalaya River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 93.4 West. Barry is moving toward the north near 6 mph (10 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will move across the western and northern portions of Louisiana today, and over Arkansas tonight and Monday. NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring near the coast to the southeast of the center. Weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland, and Barry is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) was recently reported at Cypremort Point, Louisiana, located in Vermilion Bay. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...1 to 3 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Biloxi MS, including Lake Pontchartrain...Water levels are decreasing to normal levels as the storm moves inland. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over south-central Louisiana, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area, and these conditions will persist through the morning. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama, and eastern Arkansas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Willa Public Advisory Number 16A
2018-10-24 07:56:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 240555 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 ...WILLA RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM INLAND NEAR DURANGO... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS TO CONTINUE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 104.6W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SE OF DURANGO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal tropical cyclone warnings for Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Willa was located inland Mexico near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 104.6 West. Willa is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (32 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 12 hours. The forecast track will continue to bring Wilma farther inland over west-central Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast during the next 12 hours, and Willa is expected to dissipate by this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly near and to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit will gradually subside today. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves and rough surf conditions. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 5 inches possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue inland across portions of west-central mainland Mexico this morning. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 16A
2018-10-10 20:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101836 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Corrected pressure in inches in summary block and text ...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Alabama/Florida border. The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued south of Chassahowitzka. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida. At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight. Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western Atlantic. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust to 129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.14 inches). A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above ground level. WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue to spread inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon and tonight. With the landfall of Michael's eye occurring, everyone in the landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye passes! Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 16A
2018-10-10 19:37:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101737 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Alabama/Florida border. The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued south of Chassahowitzka. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida. At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight. Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western Atlantic. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust to 129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.41 inches). A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above ground level. WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue to spread inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon and tonight. With the landfall of Michael's eye occurring, everyone in the landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye passes! Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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