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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 16A
2018-09-28 01:55:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 657 WTNT32 KNHC 272355 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 800 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018 ...CENTER OF KIRK APPROACHING ST. LUCIA... ...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS BARBADOS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 60.7W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just east of St. Lucia near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 60.7 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west- northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move across the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area during the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected while the center of Kirk moves through the Lesser Antilles. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days while the system moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Kirk is forecast to become a tropical depression Friday night, and degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area overnight. Locally higher winds are possible atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches by Friday and Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 16A
2018-09-11 19:40:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 326 WTNT34 KNHC 111740 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 200 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018 ...ISAAC CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 50.4W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The meteorological service of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Kitts and Nevis. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Martinique * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Isaac as additional watches could be issued this afternoon or evening. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located with high-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite data near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 50.4 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track Isaac is anticipated to move near or over the central Lesser Antilles on Thursday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaac is expected to be near hurricane strength when it moves through the central Lesser Antilles, with some weakening forecast afterward on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across the southern Leeward Islands late this week, with 1 to 2 inches anticipated across portions of the Windward Islands. STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is possible near and to the north of where the center moves through the Lesser Antilles. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible early Thursday in both the hurricane and tropical storm watch areas. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Bud Public Advisory Number 16A
2018-06-13 19:56:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 131755 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032018 1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018 ...BUD WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 108.8W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santa Fe to La Paz, Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 108.8 West. Bud is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today. Bud is forecast to accelerate northward on Thursday and continue that motion into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bud is expected to cross southern Baja California Sur late Thursday and move over the Gulf of California later on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (90 km/h) with higher gusts. Although additional weakening is expected during the next day or so, Bud is forecast to still be a tropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Thursday evening. RAINFALL: Bud is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across much of southwestern Mexico through Thursday, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Bud is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated totals of 5 inches across southern portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora in northwestern Mexico through Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Bud will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, western mainland Mexico, and the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 16A
2017-10-08 13:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 081152 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 ...NATE RAPIDLY WEAKENING BUT STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUES... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 88.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Alabama/Florida border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border eastward to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 88.0 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Nate's center will continue to move inland across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Nate is expected to continue to quickly weaken as it moves farther inland. It should degenerate into a remnant low late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (150 km) primarily southeast of the center over water. A wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) was reported at Destin, Florida within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). Water levels of around 3.0 to 3.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) have recently been reported by National Ocean Service gauges at Pensacola, Florida, and Mobile Bay, Alabama. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the tropical storm warning area for the next couple of hours. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...5 to 8 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...3 to 5 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border...1 to 3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today, mainly from the Florida Panhandle and eastern Alabama across western and northern Georgia. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico through this evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 16A
2017-09-20 07:53:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200553 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 200 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...CORE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 65.1W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba * St. Maarten * Guadeloupe * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 65.1 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a northwestward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the eye of Maria will cross Puerto Rico today, and pass just north of the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur before the hurricane reaches Puerto Rico, but Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane as it moves over Puerto Rico. Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). A sustained wind of 104 mph (167 km/h) with a wind gust to 137 mph (220 km/h) was reported within the hour in the western portion of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 910 mb (26.87 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over the Virgin Islands and will spread over Puerto Rico in the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Dominican Republic tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible on Thursday in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near- surface winds indicated in this advisory. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels in portions of the hurricane warning area near the British Virgin Islands. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday: Central and southern Leeward Islands...additional 1 to 3 inches. Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...additional 3 to 6 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 8 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches. Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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