je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Tropical Depression Danny Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-06-29 04:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 81.5W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 81.5W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 80.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.3N 83.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 81.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-06-28 22:47:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 282047 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NO CHANGES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.3W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 107.3W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.4N 107.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N 108.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.8N 109.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 110.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.3N 111.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 111.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 107.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Danny Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-06-28 22:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 282042 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Danny Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 Deep convection has exploded this afternoon over the center of what is now Tropical Storm Danny. Reconnaissance aircraft measured 49 kt winds at the 850-mb fight-level, which equals roughly a 39-kt surface wind. In addition, Doppler velocity data from the Charleston radar measured average velocities of 49 kt at 6000-7000 ft, which also equate to about 40-kt surface winds. A reconnaissance aircraft dropsonde also measured a central pressure of 1009 mb. Based on these data, the advisory intensity has been increased to 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt. Tiny Danny is forecast to maintain a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so, with landfall expected along the southern coast of South Carolina likely occurring by 0000 UTC this evening. The small tropical cyclone should continue to move inland across southern South Carolina and eastern Georgia tonight and early Tuesday, with dissipation expected over the mountains of northern Georgia by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus track models HCCA, TVCA, and GFEX. No additional strengthening is anticipated before Danny makes landfall. Rapid weakening should commence shortly after landfall, with Danny likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday morning. The official intensity forecast follows a blend for the Decay-SHIPS statistical model for inland tropical cyclones, and the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Danny are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 32.3N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 33.2N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1800Z 34.3N 85.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Danny Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-06-28 22:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282041 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042021 2100 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 80.1W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 80.1W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 33.2N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.3N 85.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 80.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-06-28 17:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 281532 CCA TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO LOS BARRILES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 106.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.9N 107.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N 107.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.2N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 109.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.8N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 110.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 25.3N 112.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 106.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [222] [223] [224] [225] [226] [227] [228] [229] [230] [231] [232] [233] [234] [235] [236] [237] [238] [239] [240] [241] next »