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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 12

2021-06-28 04:51:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280251 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 27 2021 The satellite presentation of Enrique has improved slightly this evening with a ragged eye occasionally seen in infrared imagery. A couple of earlier SSMI/S microwave images revealed a double eyewall structure with the inner eyewall open to the northeast. The microwave data also revealed good banding structure over the southern portion of the cyclone. Although the eye has been apparent this evening, subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB remain T4.5 (77 kt) with objective satellite estimates slightly lower. Therefore the initial wind speed of 80 kt is maintained for this advisory. The environment ahead of Enrique is forecast to remain conducive for some additional strengthening, however the double eye structure suggests that an eyewall cycle is occuring so little overall change in strength is anticipated through early Monday. After that time, decreasing ocean heat content and the possibility of upwelling of cooler waters due to the slow motion of the hurricane are likely to lead to gradual weakening over the next 36-48 hours. Later in the forecast period, Enrique is expected to entrain a drier and more stable airmass and that along with cooler SSTs and potential interaction with the Baja California peninsula are forecast to result in a faster rate of decay in 3-4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the slightly higher statistical guidance and the HCCA and ICON consensus aids. Enrique has been moving generally northward, but very recently it appears that the much anticipated north-northwestward turn may be beginning. The overall track forecast philosophy has not changed from the previous advisory. A ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the tropical cyclone, which should cause Enrique to turn northwestward on Monday, and that general heading should continue for the next few days. The track guidance is in somewhat better agreement than it has been over the past couple of days and the new forecast is between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models. On the forecast track, Enrique is expected to pass near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in 2-3 days and interests in that area should monitor the progress of this system. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 19.6N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 20.3N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 22.4N 108.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 23.3N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 24.4N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 12

2021-06-28 04:50:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 280250 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC MON JUN 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA * CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ENRIQUE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 360SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 106.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.3N 106.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.9N 106.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.6N 107.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 108.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.3N 109.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.4N 110.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 26.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 106.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 11

2021-06-27 22:57:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272057 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Enrique has been trying to form an eye in visible satellite imagery since early this morning. Each time this has occurred, the feature has filled in shortly thereafter. The overall appearance and structure of the hurricane has changed little today, and the latest Dvorak T-number from TAFB indicates that the estimated intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. A pair of earlier ASCAT overpasses helped to confirm the size of the wind field of Enrique, and showed that tropical storm conditions were occurring within the warned area of the coast of Mexico. The data also revealed that the strongest core of winds of 50 kt or greater were about 50 n mi offshore. Enrique move a little east of north for several hours today. However, over the past couple of hours it appears that the eastward component of motion has ceased, and the initial motion is now 360/07 kt. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is currently moving toward a weakening mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. A small ridge should build just to the northeast of the cyclone tonight, forcing it to turn north-northwest then northwest. This northwestward motion should then continue until the system dissipates by the middle of the week. Based on the forecast track and wind radii, the core of strongest winds associated with Enrique are forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico through tonight and any deviation to the right could bring the strongest winds to the coast by late tonight. As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for a small portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico. In about 72 h, the center of the system is forecast to be near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is still favorable for strengthening in the near term, and although not shown in the official forecast, some slight strengthening could still occur through tonight. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a remnant low in a few days. There is some uncertainty as to whether or not this transition will occur before the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. Therefore it is possible that a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula by tomorrow. After Enrique does finally become a remnant low, it should dissipate shortly thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM models through 36 h and the corrected consensus HCCA beyond 36 h. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The core of Enrique is forecast to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico tonight and the government of Mexico as issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of that area. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across the remainder of southwestern Mexico within the warning areas through early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 19.0N 105.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown

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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 11

2021-06-27 22:53:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 272053 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC SUN JUN 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PLAYA PERULA TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PUNTA MITA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA MITA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.7W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 300SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.7W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.8N 106.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 106.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.1N 107.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.8N 107.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 108.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 105.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 28/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/BROWN

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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 10

2021-06-27 16:47:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271447 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021 Enrique has been holding its own over the past several hours, with some warming of the cloud tops over the estimated center, suggesting that an eye is attempting to form. The northern portion of the core appears to be entraining some dry air, which is likely due to down-sloping from the offshore flow over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. Otherwise, the core of the hurricane appears well intact, and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate T-number from TAFB indicates that the initial intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. Enrique has been wobbling on a nearly due north trajectory for the past 12 h or so, while the forward motion has appeared to increase to about 5 kt. There is little change to the forecast track reasoning. Embedded in generally weak steering flow, Enrique is forecast to move toward a mid-level trough over northwestern Mexico. This trough is expected to gradually fill in over the next day or so, causing the system to turn to the north-northwest. By late Monday and Tuesday, the weakening cyclone should turn northwestward as it becomes steered by the lower-tropospheric environmental flow. The latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, and is close to the TVCE consensus. Overall, the environment surrounding Enrique is favorable for strengthening in the near term. On Monday, the hurricane is forecast to begin moving over waters of decreasing oceanic heat content. Due to the fairly slow motion of the cyclone over these waters, upwelling should bring cooler waters to the surface. This would induce a gradual weakening trend beginning sometime tomorrow. By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to begin moving over much cooler waters and into a drier and stable atmospheric environment, which will hasten the pace of weakening. Most of the guidance shows Enrique becoming a remnant low very near the time it reaches the southern Baja California peninsula, with the low dissipating a short time thereafter. Other than indicating a little faster transition to a remnant low and dissipation, the official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, near the high end of the guidance through 36 h, and then a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models and the intensity consensus after 36 h. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue across portions of southwestern Mexico through early Monday. Although the core of Enrique is still forecast to remain just offshore, any deviation to the right of the forecast track or expansion of the wind field could bring even stronger winds onshore over a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.2N 105.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 19.1N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.9N 106.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.1N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.8N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.6N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Stewart

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