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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-09-09 16:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 213 WTPZ43 KNHC 091442 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 Paul has not strengthened since the last advisory. Satellite imagery shows that the disorganized low-level center is located on the northeastern edge of the main convective mass, while the cyclone is being influenced by fairly strong easterly shear. The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Although the shear is forecast to relax during the next couple of days, Paul will then be moving over marginal SSTs and into a drier air mass. Therefore only modest strengthening is predicted during the next day or so, followed by a leveling off of the intensity. The official forecast is a little below the previous one, but above most of the latest numerical guidance. Paul is moving slowly northwestward, or 320/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue northwestward on the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the next day or so. Later in the forecast period, a ridge to the north of the system should cause Paul to turn toward the west-northwest. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.9N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 20.1N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 23.7N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 24.5N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-09-09 16:42:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 188 FOPZ13 KNHC 091442 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 7 63(70) 4(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) 20N 120W 50 X 18(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 120W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 1(16) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-09-09 16:40:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 701 WTPZ23 KNHC 091440 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 118.1W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 330SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 118.1W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.1N 120.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.7N 130.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 24.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Paul Graphics
2018-09-09 10:45:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 08:45:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 08:45:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-09-09 10:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 466 FOPZ13 KNHC 090843 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 1 38(39) 35(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 120W 50 X 5( 5) 25(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 1(20) X(20) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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