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Tropical Storm Pamela Graphics
2021-10-13 08:02:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Oct 2021 06:02:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Oct 2021 03:22:29 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-13 07:57:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...PAMELA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING... As of 12:00 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 the center of Pamela was located near 22.2, -108.3 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-10-13 07:57:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 130557 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1200 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...PAMELA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 108.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 108.3 West. Pamela is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin this morning and continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area later this morning and move inland over western Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Pamela is forecast to regain hurricane strength by the time it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico this morning. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) with a gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently observed at Isla Maria Madre, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions soon beginning to spread over portions of the coast. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Pamela Graphics
2021-10-13 04:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 13 Oct 2021 02:38:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 13 Oct 2021 02:38:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-10-13 04:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Westerly shear has continued to prevent Pamela from restrengthening this evening. Although there was a significant burst of deep convection since the previous advisory, the center remains on the northwestern edge of the convective cloud mass and more recently the cloud tops associated with that burst has begun to warm. A blend of subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from SAB and TAFB, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate stills support an initial intensity of 60 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Pamela overnight, which should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity. Recent center fixes show that Pamela has made its much anticipated north-northeastward turn, and it is now moving 020/10 kt. The tropical storm should accelerate northeastward during the next 12 to 24 hours as it gets caught in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico, and an approaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest. This motion should bring the center of Pamela to the coast of west-central mainland Mexico around 1200 UTC Wednesday morning. After that time, Pamela or its remnants should continue moving quickly northeastward across central and northern Mexico through Wednesday night. Although a 36-h post-tropical cyclone point is shown over southern Texas, the low-level center is likely to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Pamela will be moving over very warm SSTs of around 31C overnight, and that combined with a slightly more conducive upper-level wind pattern should allow Pamela to restrengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening will occur as Pamela moves over the rugged terrain of west-central Mexico. The latest NHC intensity forecast is again near the higher side of the guidance envelope, but it shows a slightly lower peak intensity before landfall than the previous official forecast. Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to restrengthen into a hurricane before it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango along with southern portions of Baja California Sur tonight and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 21.9N 108.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 23.8N 106.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 14/0000Z 26.6N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1200Z 29.7N 99.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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