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Summary for Tropical Storm Fausto (EP1/EP112020)
2020-08-16 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO... ...NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ANY FURTHER... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 the center of Fausto was located near 20.7, -119.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fausto Public Advisory Number 3
2020-08-16 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161444 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fausto Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO... ...NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ANY FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 119.6W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 119.6 West. Fausto is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the west is expected to occur Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Weakening should begin on Monday, and the system is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Fausto Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-16 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161444 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 119.6W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 119.6W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 121.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.6N 124.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.1N 127.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 24.0N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.6N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.9N 133.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-16 10:47:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 08:47:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 09:24:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-08-16 10:44:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160844 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 Josephine's low-level center has raced out over 100 n mi to the west of a remnant area of deep convection, which itself is shrinking and becoming more disorganized. Due to the loss of organization, it is assumed that Josephine's maximum winds have decreased, and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, which matches the latest Current Intensity estimates. Analyses from the UW-CIMSS indicate that Josephine is now being pounded by about 35 kt of southwesterly shear, and a zone of even higher shear exists to the northwest of the cyclone. Therefore, continued weakening is expected, and Josephine could lose all of its organized deep convection and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not sooner. The NHC forecast holds a remnant low after 36 hours until the end of the forecast period, but it is entirely possible that the hostile conditions will cause Josephine to dissipate at any time, with the circulation opening up into a trough. The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, although this heading is a bit to the left of the previous motion, suggesting even further that Josephine is becoming a shallower cyclone steered by lower-level winds. Still, there should be enough low- to mid-level troughing moving off the U.S. east coast later today and on Monday to cause Josephine, or its remnants, to recurve toward the north and northeast by day 5. The track guidance agrees on this scenario, although the newest official forecast is a little slower and to the right of the previous prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine is passing far enough to the north of the Leeward Islands to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 20.3N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.1N 65.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 22.4N 67.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 23.8N 68.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 25.4N 69.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 28.2N 68.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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