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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-15 16:41:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151441 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 65.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 65.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 66.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.8N 62.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 40.8N 58.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 41.7N 54.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 42.2N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 42.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 65.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics
2020-08-15 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 14:34:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 14:34:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-08-15 16:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151433 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Josephine has a sheared cloud pattern in satellite imagery this morning, with the low-level center located near the western edge of the main convective area. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the storm reported flight-level winds as high as 47 kt at 925 mb, along with surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of 35-40 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The aircraft also reported that, while the area of westerly winds south of the center was small, the circulation is still closed and that the central pressure was near 1008 mb. The storm has moved a little to the left since the last advisory, with the motion now west-northwestward or 290/14 kt. Other than that, there is little change in the forecast track or the forecast track philosophy. During the next 2-3 days, Josephine or its remnants are likely to continue to move west-northwestward to the south and southwest of a subtropical high pressure area. After that, the system is forecast to re-curve to the north and north-northeast through a break in the western portion of the high. The new NHC forecast lies to the the center of the tightly- clustered guidance and near the various consensus models. Josephine is expected to remain in an environment of moderate to strong westerly shear for at least the next 48-60 h. This should cause the system to weaken, with the new intensity forecast now calling for Josephine to weaken to a depression between 36-48 h and degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h. Several global models forecast the cyclone to degenerate to a tropical wave before 72 h, and this remains a viable alternative forecast scenario, especially considering how small the closed circulation is. There is a chance that Josephine or its remnants could encounter a less hostile environment after 72 h. However, it is unclear at this time whether there will be enough left of the system to take advantage of that. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands today and tonight to prevent major impacts. However, interests there should continue to monitor its progress until the storm has passed north of that area. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico as Josephine passes by to the northeast. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 19.1N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.8N 61.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 21.0N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 22.3N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 23.8N 67.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 25.2N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 26.7N 69.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z 32.5N 64.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-15 16:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF JOSEPHINE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Josephine was located near 19.1, -60.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 16
2020-08-15 16:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 151432 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 ...CENTER OF JOSEPHINE PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 60.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 60.2 West. Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Josephine is expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands today and tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through today. After that, Josephine is expected to weaken as it encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Josephine is expected to cause storm-total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Isolated minor flooding is possible in Puerto Rico through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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