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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-23 16:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO FACES AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... ...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Jul 23 the center of Gonzalo was located near 9.6, -48.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 8
2020-07-23 16:45:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231445 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO FACES AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... ...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 48.3W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 48.3 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands Friday night and move across the islands Saturday and Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo could become a hurricane tonight or on Friday. Gonzalo is a small storm, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by midday Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands from Friday night through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-23 16:45:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231445 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 Recently-obtained GCOM and WindSat microwave data from overnight shows that Gonzalo's center is a little farther south than previously estimated. In addition, the storm's structure has become a little disheveled since yesterday, with the deep convection losing some organization. SAB's data-T number responded to this by falling to 2.5, but overall the CI numbers and SATCON support maintaining 55 kt for now. There is still an incredible amount of uncertainty in Gonzalo's intensity forecast. Sea surface temperatures to the east of the Windward Islands are warm--close to 29C--and the storm is likely to be moving through an environment of relatively light shear at least for the next 48 hours or so. The ambient environment is not particularly moist, however, with mid-level relative humidity generally around 50 percent, and it already appears that this dry air is affecting Gonzalo. Small cyclones like Gonzalo tend to succumb to any type of adverse environmental conditions quite easily, and it's possible that the system could struggle during the next couple of days. This is the solution shown by some of the global models, particularly the ECMWF and UKMET. On the other hand, the hurricane statistical and dynamical models, as well as the GFS, continue to show Gonzalo strengthening to a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Out of an abundance of caution, the official forecast continues to show Gonzalo becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours, but the uncertainty in this scenario cannot be stressed enough. There is a higher degree of certainty that Gonzalo would weaken once it moves over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, where even the GFS shows it opening up into a wave. Even with the southward adjustment of the initial position, Gonzalo still appears to be moving westward, or 270/12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north is forecast to push Gonzalo toward the west or west-northwest, with an increase in forward speed, for the entire 5-day forecast period. Much of the track uncertainty hinges on exactly how strong Gonzalo gets, with the stronger model representations showing the storm making more poleward process. Models such as the ECMWF and UKMET, which keep Gonzalo weak or open it up into a trough, are along the southern side of the guidance envelope. The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted southward some, to account for the new initial position and to be a little closer to the intensity consensus, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble. Key Messages 1. There is an increasing risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands. Hurricane Watches are currently in effect for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and additional watches for other islands could be required later today. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 9.6N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 9.8N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 10.1N 52.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 10.5N 55.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 11.2N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 11.9N 62.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 12.6N 65.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 14.0N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-07-23 16:45:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 231445 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 1(40) X(40) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) X(35) X(35) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-07-23 16:44:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 231444 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 48.3W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 48.3W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 9.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.1N 52.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N 55.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.9N 62.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.6N 65.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 71.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 48.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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