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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 7
2020-07-23 10:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 230848 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 ...GONZALO STRENGTHENS AGAIN WHILE STILL HEADING DUE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 47.0W ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these islands later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 47.0 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-23 10:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 08:43:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Jul 2020 03:24:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-23 10:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 A 0441 UTC ATMS/Soumi NPP microwave overpass revealed a well-developed banding feature wrapping into the center from the east semi-circle. Cloud tops have once again cooled near the surface center and subsequently, the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to T3.5 (55 kt). Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt for this advisory. No major changes were made to the intensity forecast and there still remains a relatively high degree of uncertainty beyond day 3 while the cyclone moves through the Caribbean Sea. Strengthening is forecast through 48 hours as Gonzalo approaches the Islands and the forecast is close to a blend of the HCCA intensity consensus, the IVCN multi-model guidance and the Decay SHIPS. Beyond mid-period, the forecast reflects a weakening trend in respect to the European models solution, but at much more gradual rate. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt. The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged. Gonzalo is moving within low to mid-level easterly steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone, and this high pressure should steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next few days. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. Two distinct model clusters with differing forecast track solutions persist. The European models along with the Canadian indicate a weak cyclone moving generally westward through the southern Windward Islands and dissipating in 5 days or less. The NCEP models, on the other hand, show a much stronger tropical cyclone with a west-northwestward to northwestward motion toward Hispaniola. The NHC forecast basically down the middle of these to model clusters and is very close to the TVCA consensus aid. Interests in the Windward Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Barbados. Key Messages 1. There is an increasing risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend. Hurricane conditions are possible on Barbados where a hurricane watch has been issued. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 10.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 10.1N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 10.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 11.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 12.2N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 14.8N 68.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-07-23 10:42:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 230842 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 2(30) X(30) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 2(39) 1(40) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 35(40) X(40) X(40) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 3(29) X(29) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-07-23 10:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230841 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.9N 53.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.2N 60.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 14.8N 68.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 47.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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