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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-07-21 10:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 210835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.8W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.8W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.2N 127.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.3N 129.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.0N 132.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.2N 134.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.4N 137.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 143.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.8N 148.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Douglas Graphics
2020-07-21 04:36:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 02:36:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 03:31:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-21 04:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 745 WTPZ43 KNHC 210235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 Satellite data indicate that the cyclone is strengthening. The system now has a small but well organized central dense overcast with curved bands on the west side of the circulation. All of the satellite intensity estimates are of tropical storm strength, and based on that data the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Douglas. The tropical storm is moving west-southwestward at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge situated to the north of Douglas off the northern Baja California coast should cause the storm to gradually turn westward during the next couple of days and then west-northwestward beyond that time. The models are in good agreement on this scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous prediction. Douglas is expected to be in quite favorable conditions of low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs during the next few days. Given these conducive environmental conditions and the storm's improved and compact structure, steady or possibly even rapid strengthening is possible during that time period. After a few days, however, a combination of higher shear, slightly cooler waters, and drier air should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the higher end of the guidance. This forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening in the short term and more weakening at the end of the period compared to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 12.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 12.0N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 11.9N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 12.3N 130.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 13.2N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 14.2N 136.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 16.6N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-21 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Jul 20 the center of Douglas was located near 13.1, -121.6 with movement WSW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Douglas Public Advisory Number 3
2020-07-21 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 121.6W ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 121.6 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly faster westward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Douglas is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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