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Tropical Storm Douglas Graphics
2020-07-21 10:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 08:37:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 08:37:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-07-21 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 1(43) X(43) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Douglas (EP3/EP082020)
2020-07-21 10:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Mon Jul 20 the center of Douglas was located near 13.0, -122.8 with movement WSW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Douglas Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-21 10:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210835 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 ...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 122.8W ABOUT 1085 MI...1750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 122.8 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion should continue into Tuesday morning. A westward motion is forecast by Tuesday afternoon and continue into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Douglas is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-21 10:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210835 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 Conventional and scatterometer satellite data indicate that Douglas has continued to strengthen, although cloud tops have recently begun to warm. A well-defined CDO, along with a curved convective band in the western semicircle, has developed, and an earlier SSMI/S overpass suggested that a primitive eye feature may be developing. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on a 0506Z ASCAT-A pass that showed a small area of winds to 45 kt located less than 15 nmi northeast of the center. This intensity is supported by a consensus T3.0/45-kt estimate from TAFB and SAB, and an upward-trending UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of T3.2/49 kt. The symmetrical 34-kt wind radii are based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. The initial motion estimate remains west-southwestward or 255/12 kt. A ridge located between TD-07E to the north and Douglas to the south is expected to keep the latter cyclone moving west-southwestward into Tuesday morning. After that time, the global and regional models are forecasting the ridge to weaken and retreat eastward faster than originally expected, resulting in Douglas turning west-northwestward in 36-48 h. As a result of this more poleward motion, the new NHC official track forecast was shifted north of the previous advisory track, but not as far north as the some of the consensus models and the ECMWF model, which is the northernmost track in the NHC model guidance suite. Although Douglas should remain in a favorable low-shear-high-SST environment for the next 72 h, which would typically favor rapid intensification, the small cyclone will be battling occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air. Such an intrusion appears to be occurring now based on the recent cloud-top warming that has been observed. Thus, only gradual strengthening, with brief periods of arrested development, is expected for the next 3 days. On days 4 and 5, the cyclone will be moving over 25-deg-C SSTs and into an even drier airmass, a negative combination that is expected to induce a slow weakening trend. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 12.5N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 12.2N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 12.3N 129.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 13.0N 132.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 23/1800Z 14.2N 134.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 15.4N 137.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 143.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0600Z 17.8N 148.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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