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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-09 22:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA ALMOST A HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Cristina was located near 17.9, -111.1 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 13
2020-07-09 22:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 092036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 111.1W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A gradual turn to the west is forecast to occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. A weakening trend should then begin by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-07-09 22:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 092036 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.1W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 135SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.1W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.7N 112.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.7N 115.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.5N 117.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 22.3N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-09 16:45:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 14:45:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 15:24:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-07-09 16:42:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091442 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Cristina's convective structure has evolved into a large curved band over the past several hours. The improving appearance has not yet materialized in an increase in intensity, but may be indicative that some strengthening may soon occur. The initial wind speed estimate of 55 kt, is based on the most recent TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate. The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification for another 24 h or so. And, with the convective structure beginning to show some improvement, it is reasonable to assume that some strengthening is likely through tonight. After 24 h, the cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm and move into a progressively more stable and dry atmospheric environment. This should result in steady weakening. By 120 h, Cristina is expected to have lost all of its deep convection and become a remnant low. The official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, indicating that Cristina should become a hurricane by tomorrow morning and then begin to weaken shortly thereafter. Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of tightly clustered guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.4N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 18.2N 111.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.7N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 21.1N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 21.4N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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