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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-07-08 04:37:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080237 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 Since the previous advisory, Cristina's well-defined low-level center became briefly exposed for a couple of hours, likely resulting in a slight spin-down of the vortex. However, deep convection has recently redeveloped over and southwest of the center, so the intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of TAFB and SAB subjective satellite classifications, and the most recent downward-trending UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T2.9/43 kt. The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Cristina moving west-northwestward south of a nearly stationary deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. The new NHC forecast track is a tad north of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models. High-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite imagery indicates that Cristina's center has been moving closer to the center of the synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone where the vertical wind shear should be lower. The recent burst of deep convection near the center could the beginning stages of more significant strengthening owing to the lower shear, high mid-level humidity near 80 percent, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) near 29C. Therefore, steady strengthening is forecast for the next 60 h while the cyclone remains over warm SSTs, and a period of rapid intensification (RI) is still possible during the next couple of days. By 72 h and beyond, however, Cristina will be moving over sub-26 deg C SSTs that will decrease to about 22C by 120 h, with the much cooler water inducing steady weakening on days 4-5. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN intensity guidance through 36 hours, and then is slightly higher than the guidance in order to maintain continuity with the previous intensity forecast and also due to the possibility of RI occurring. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 13.8N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 14.7N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.9N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 17.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 17.8N 112.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 21.4N 121.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-08 04:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 the center of Cristina was located near 13.8, -105.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 6
2020-07-08 04:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080236 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 ...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 105.3W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 105.3 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Cristina is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Cristina is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-07-08 04:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080236 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 57(63) 1(64) X(64) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 1(37) X(37) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 2(56) X(56) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 2(33) X(33) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 38(43) 2(45) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-08 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080236 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.3W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.3W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 106.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 108.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.0N 110.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.8N 112.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 21.4N 121.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 105.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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