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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-03 01:58:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 23:58:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 21:25:00 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-03 01:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 the center of Cristobal was located near 19.1, -92.3 with movement S at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-06-03 01:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 022357 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 700 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 92.3W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.3 West. Cristobal is meandering generally southward near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward the southeast and east is expected tonight and Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast on Wednesday and move inland over eastern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane and surface observations indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) from the center. An automated weather station on a Mexican offshore platform recently measured a sustained wind of 48 mph with a gust to 62 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. Cristobal is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-02 22:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 20:41:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 20:41:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-06-02 22:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 022039 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 Observations from the Hurricane Hunters around midday indicated winds to tropical storm force over the southwestern quadrant, so the cyclone was named. Since that time, scatterometer data suggested that the wind field has become a little more symmetrical. The current intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, which is a little above the subjective Dvorak estimates. Some strengthening could occur overnight since the cyclone is in a conducive atmospheric and oceanic environment. However, it now seems likely that the system will make landfall over eastern Mexico on Wednesday which should cause weakening. Assuming that the center emerges over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some re-intensification is forecast. However, stronger shear over the northern Gulf should limit the increase in strength. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance. Satellite and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone is moving slowly southward, or around 170/3 kt. The system appears to be rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern Mexico. The global models show that Cristobal will be trapped between two high pressure areas and have little overall movement for the next few days. However, the slow, cyclonically looping movement of the cyclone should take the center over eastern Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Later in the week, increasing southerly flow should steer the system northward over the Gulf of Mexico and near the northern Gulf coast by the weekend. The official track forecast lies near the latest dynamical model consensus, and is roughly in the middle of the track guidance suite. Given the spread in this guidance, there is a significant amount of uncertainty in the NHC forecast at days 4-5. Key Messages: 1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological service for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 19.1N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Pasch
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