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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics

2020-06-04 04:40:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 02:40:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 02:40:24 GMT

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-06-04 04:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040239 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Geostationary satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, indicate that Cristobal has moved very little since the previous advisory, and that the convective structure of the cyclone remains fairly well-organized with several bands wrapping around the circulation. The center is still located just south of Ciudad del Carmen, and the observing site at that location reported a pressure of around 995 mb earlier this evening. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt, assuming some reduction in wind speed has taken place. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the next day or so while the center moves slowly inland over eastern Mexico. Cristobal is expected to emerge over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Friday and some re-intensification is forecast to occur. After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast while Cristobal moves northward toward the northern Gulf coast, but the overall environment is not expected to be particularly conducive for intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly lower peak intensity than the previous advisory, and it is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Although Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past several hours, a slow southeastward or eastward motion should commence overnight. Increasing southerly flow around a strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to begin moving northward on Friday, and a northward or north-northwestward motion should continue through Saturday with Cristobal approaching the northern Gulf coast by later in the weekend. The new NHC track forecast is again very similar to the previous NHC advisory and is close to the various consensus models. The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have been increased primarily over the eastern semicircle at 48 through 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday morning, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states. 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.3N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.0N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 18.4N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 19.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/1200Z 23.1N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 24.9N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 28.8N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)

2020-06-04 04:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CRISTOBAL MOVING VERY LITTLE WHILE IT CONTINUES TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 the center of Cristobal was located near 18.3, -91.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-06-04 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 109 WTNT23 KNHC 040238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.0N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.4N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.7N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.3N 90.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.1N 90.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.9N 90.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 28.8N 91.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 32.5N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)

2020-06-04 01:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MEANDERING OVER LAND... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 the center of Cristobal was located near 18.3, -91.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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