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Tropical Storm Pamela Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-10-10 22:39:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 211 FOPZ11 KNHC 102039 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 2100 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAMELA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 56(63) 2(65) X(65) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 59(65) 1(66) X(66) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) X(27) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 41(66) X(66) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 28(34) 2(36) X(36) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 13(61) X(61) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) X(27) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 57(72) 17(89) 1(90) X(90) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 24(62) X(62) X(62) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 18(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 25(27) 34(61) 4(65) X(65) X(65) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Pamela (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-10 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAMELA... ...FORECAST TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE MEXICO COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 the center of Pamela was located near 15.5, -105.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pamela Public Advisory Number 3
2021-10-10 22:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 102038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAMELA... ...FORECAST TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE MEXICO COAST BY MIDWEEK AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 105.9W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southern portions of Baja California del Sur and in west-central mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Pamela. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Pamela is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn to the northwest and then north is forecast to occur late Monday into Tuesday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and approach the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and Pamela is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Victor Graphics
2021-10-02 16:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 14:49:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 14:49:36 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-02 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 2 the center of Victor was located near 13.1, -37.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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