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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 26
2021-08-16 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 053 WTNT31 KNHC 160243 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FRED A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 85.9W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 85.9 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southeast Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning by late Monday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible late tonight through early Monday over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the day Monday from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2021-08-16 04:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 160243 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 13(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 34 1 12(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) APALACHICOLA 34 35 29(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) APALACHICOLA 50 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 62 8(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GFMX 290N 850W 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 27 53(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) PANAMA CITY FL 50 1 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 3 38(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 14(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 870W 34 23 11(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GFMX 290N 870W 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-16 01:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING FRED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 the center of Fred was located near 27.1, -85.7 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 25A
2021-08-16 01:49:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 152348 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 700 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING FRED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 85.7W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to Navarre A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the Florida Big Bend should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 85.7 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected until landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning on Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight into early Monday along the west coast of Florida and over the Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Fred Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2021-08-15 23:45:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 21:45:59 GMT
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