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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2020-11-10 15:53:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 101453 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 5(17) 1(18) 1(19) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 3(21) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 11(19) 4(23) 2(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 4(19) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 4(21) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Subtropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-11-10 15:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 101452 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-10 15:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA MEANDERING JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... As of 9:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10 the center of Eta was located near 22.7, -85.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-10 15:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 101452 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Theta continues to exhibit a mix of tropical and subtropical characteristics. The cyclone has a fairly compact radius of maximum winds with a central dense overcast over the northern portion of the circulation. However, there is a strong subtropical jet located just to the south of Theta, and strong upper-level winds in the surrounding environment in the presence of an upper trough. Based on this inconclusive data, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm for this advisory. An ASCAT-B overpass this morning revealed 50-kt winds in the northwest and southwest quadrants, with several 55-60 kt wind vectors, some of those vectors outside of the deep convection making them more believable. Based on this, the initial advisory intensity has been set to 60 kt. The storm is moving just north of due east, or 085/13 kt. Theta should continue to be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The latest model guidance is a little faster and slightly north of the previous forecast track, and so the latest NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly as well. Theta is still expected to transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable for the next couple of days, which should be supportive of deep convection. Therefore, little change is strength is indicated during that time. Some weakening is anticipated later in the forecast period as the airmass becomes more stable. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one primarily due to the higher initial intensity, and is near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 29.0N 37.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 29.1N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 29.7N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 30.4N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 31.1N 28.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 31.7N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 32.2N 23.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 33.0N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 34.3N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 41
2020-11-10 15:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101452 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...ETA MEANDERING JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 85.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 85.3 West. Eta has been nearly stationary this morning, and little motion is expected today. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this evening and continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today and tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm). Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba today. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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