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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-10 12:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 11:48:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 09:24:52 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-10 12:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... As of 6:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10 the center of Eta was located near 22.6, -85.3 with movement S at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 40A
2020-11-10 12:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101146 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 40A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 600 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 ...ETA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 85.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 85.3 West. Eta has been drifting southward this morning, but it is expected to become stationary again later today. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today and tonight: Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm). Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida today and tonight. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba today. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Latto
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Subtropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-10 09:49:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 08:49:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Nov 2020 08:49:15 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-10 09:48:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 100848 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of maximum wind. However, the storm is still entangled with an upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical storm. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. The storm is moving due eastward at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A trough to the north of the subtropical storm is expected to lift out, and Theta should be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. Theta should transition to a tropical storm later today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Little change in intensity is expected during the next several days due to mixed environmental conditions. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable, which should be supportive of deep convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 29.2N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 29.7N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 31.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 31.4N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 32.2N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 33.1N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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