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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-10-05 22:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 052052 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.4W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.4W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 79.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-10-05 22:46:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052046 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 Deep convection associated with Maria has all but dissipated and what is left of it has been located over 120 n mi from the exposed low-level center of the cyclone since around 1400 UTC this morning. A recent ASCAT overpass shows the maximum winds have decreased to 43 kt as of 1800 UTC, and assuming weakening has continued since that time, 40 kt will be the initial advisory intensity. There are no reasons to believe that the deep convection will redevelop near the center of Marie, as the cyclone is forecast to remain in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind shear, SSTs cooler than 25 degrees C, and a surrounding dry and stable airmass. Therefore, Maria is expected to be declared a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low should gradually spin down and open into a trough by late this week. Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west-southwest is expected in a couple of days as low- mid-level ridging builds to the northwest of what's left of the cyclone. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.4N 132.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 21.8N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 23.4N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 23.3N 138.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z 23.1N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-05 22:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Marie was located near 21.4, -132.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 27
2020-10-05 22:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 052043 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...MARIE NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 132.7W ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 132.7 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Marie is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2020-10-05 22:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 052043 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 135W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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