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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-13 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 131452 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...KARINA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 114.7W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 114.7 West. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the southwest of the center. An automated Mexican weather station on Clarion Island recently reported a wind gust to 44 mph (71 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-13 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 131452 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 34(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) X(16) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-13 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 131452 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.7W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 114.7W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.0N 117.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 120.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.7N 122.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 22.6N 125.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.8N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 114.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-13 13:57:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 the center of Sally was located near 27.3, -84.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 7A
2020-09-13 13:57:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 131156 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 84.6W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 84.6 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north- northwest is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible through early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. A buoy located about 25 miles offshore of Venice, Florida, has reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a gust to 58 mph within the past few hours. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area starting late Monday, with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday, and within the warning area late Monday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches across southern and central Florida through Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches over portions of the Central Gulf Coast between the western Florida Panhandle and far southeast Louisiana from Monday into the middle of the week. Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is possible farther inland over portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding near the Central Gulf Coast through the middle of the week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams, and minor to isolated major flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells will spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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