je.st
news
Tag: storm
Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-13 11:03:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:03:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 09:53:35 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-13 11:02:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Recent scatterometer data showed an area of 30-35 kt winds within about 80 n mi of the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E in the southwestern quadrant. Based on this data, along with 35-40 kt intensity estimates from TAFB and the CIMSS satellite consensus, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Karina with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Satellite imagery show that the system is still being affected by northeasterly vertical shear, with the low-level center exposed to the northeast of the main convective mass. The initial motion is now 310/10. The global models forecast a mid-level ridge to build westward to the north of Karina in a day or two, causing the cyclone to move west- northwestward. A more westward motion is expected near the end of the forecast period as a weakening Karin is steered more by the low-level trade winds. The track guidance is in fair agreement with this scenario, although there is some spread in the forward speed, possibly due differences in how Karina interacts with the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough circulation, including the remnants of Invest 91E. The new forecast track will follow the forward speed of the consensus models and has only minor adjustments from the previous track. The forecast track takes the center of Karin over cooler water, with the system crossing the 25-26C isotherms in 48-72 h. Present indications are that the shear will decrease a little before the 72 h point, so the intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during that time. After 72 h, the cooler water and dry air entrainment should cause weakening. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model and the Florida State Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 17.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 18.1N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.8N 116.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 19.4N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 19.9N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 20.5N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 22.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 22.0N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Karina (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-13 11:01:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KARINA... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 the center of Karina was located near 17.4, -113.8 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
tropical storm
Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 2
2020-09-13 11:01:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM KARINA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 113.8W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 113.8 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a west-northwest or northwest motion is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the southwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-13 11:00:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 60SE 80SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.8N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.4N 118.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 119.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 120.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Sites : [810] [811] [812] [813] [814] [815] [816] [817] [818] [819] [820] [821] [822] [823] [824] [825] [826] [827] [828] [829] next »