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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-10 22:46:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 20:46:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 20:46:21 GMT
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olaf
Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-09-10 22:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 102045 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 The low-level center of Olaf is completely exposed in visible satellite imagery this afternoon. The system has been devoid of organized convection since around 1200 UTC, and Olaf is at risk of losing its status as a tropical cyclone overnight if it is unable to generate new convection within the next 12 h. Despite its lack of convection, a weather station at Puerto Cortes measured sustained tropical-storm-force winds several hours ago as the center of Olaf passed very near the observation site, and it has more recently reported several tropical-storm-force gusts. The initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory based on the aforementioned surface observations and T2.5/35 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Olaf has rapidly weakened today, and this weakening trend is expected to continue during the next couple of days. The cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures and into a drier, more stable environment that should largely suppress new convective development. Model simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that Olaf will struggle to produce any new convection by tomorrow, and the intensity guidance consensus favors continued weakening as the vortex spins down. The official NHC intensity forecast shows Olaf becoming a 25-kt remnant low by 24 h. The remnant low is forecast to linger around for several days after, but remain weak as it moves over the open waters of the eastern Pacific. The tropical storm has begun moving more westward away from Baja California Sur, and its initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest (295 degrees) at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge building to the north of Olaf should steer the cyclone westward tonight into Saturday. By late Saturday, the shallow cyclone will begin moving southwestward as it is steered around a low-level ridge to its northwest. The official NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is moving away from the Baja California peninsula, and lingering tropical storm conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur are forecast to diminish this evening. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 24.6N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 24.8N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 24.7N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 24.2N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z 22.3N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z 21.4N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 20.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-10 22:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 the center of Olaf was located near 24.6, -112.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 13
2021-09-10 22:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 540 WTPZ35 KNHC 102045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...OLAF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 112.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Sur Mexico south of Santa Fe and around the peninsula to Loreto. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 112.7 West. Olaf is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday, followed by a southwestward motion beginning on Saturday night and continuing into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move away from the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A weather station at Puerto Cortes reported a wind gust of 38 mph (61 km/h) during the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area, but are expected to subside during the next several hours. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-09-10 22:43:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 102043 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO SOUTH OF SANTA FE AND AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 112.7W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 112.7W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.8N 113.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.7N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.4N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 112.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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