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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics

2020-08-24 11:12:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 09:12:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 09:24:58 GMT

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Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-08-24 10:58:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 240858 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Marco is clearly weakening tonight. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission showed that flight-level and SFMR had decreased along with a substantial rise in central pressure. In addition, GOES-16 1-min satellite data show the surface center well displaced from the deep convection, and it appears that Marco is decoupling from its mid-level circulation to the northeast. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, and that could be generous. Some large changes have been required on this forecast. Considering the shear is only forecast to increase, there is no significant chance that Marco re-intensifies to a hurricane, and the hurricane warnings have been replaced with tropical storm warnings. Furthermore, now that the storm is losing vertical coherence, the intensity forecast has been decreased as well, and is fairly consistent with the model consensus and almost every model. Marco has turned northwestward this morning at about 9 kt. The storm should gradually turn westward as it approaches southeastern Louisiana due to the shallower cyclone feeling the low-level ridge. Marco will likely dissipate in a couple of days near the Texas/Louisiana border due to continued strong shear. Guidance has come into better agreement on the track going slightly inland or just brushing the Louisiana coast, and the track has been nudged southward on this advisory. It should be noted that the heaviest rain and strongest winds will likely be northeast of the center, so users should not focus on the exact track of the cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Gusty winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected from Marco along portions of the Gulf Coast beginning later today. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local government officials. 2. Tropical Storm Laura could bring additional storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that may also be affected by Marco. Interests there should monitor the progress of Marco and Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 27.6N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 28.6N 89.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 29.2N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/1800Z 29.5N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 26/0600Z 29.4N 94.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 18

2020-08-24 10:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240857 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2020 Satellite data indicate that Laura has moved back over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea south of Cuba. Modest northerly vertical wind shear has kept the bulk of the deep convection displaced into the southern semicircle of Laura's circulation. Earlier ASCAT-B/-C scatterometer passes around 0210Z-0250Z revealed a small circulation just offshore southeastern Cuba. However, this feature is considered to be a leeside vortex, possibly having developed in response to the long-fetch southerly low-level flow passing over Jamaica, and not the primary low-level center associated with Laura. The initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt based on 43-46 kt wind vectors located just offshore southeastern Cuba that were present in the aforementioned ASCAT data, and allowing for some undersampling by the scatterometer instrument. The initial motion estimate is 290/18 kt. The deep-layer Bermuda-Azores ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast by all of the models to build and expand westward across the Bahamas, Florida, and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the new few days. This dominant steering flow pattern is expected to keep Laura moving west-northwestward just offshore the southern coast of Cuba today, followed by the cyclone emerging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. By late Tuesday and early Wednesday, a mid- to upper-level trough located over the south-central U.S. is forecast to pinch off and dig southwestward and merge with the remnants of Tropical Storm Marco over the western Gulf of Mexico, eroding the western extent of the ridge in the process. This is expected to cause Laura to slow down and gradually turn northwestward and then northward toward the northwestern Gulf coast by late Wednesday and early Thursday. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing synoptic pattern, and the official forecast is similar to but slightly left or south of the previous advisory track to account for the expected northerly to northeasterly wind shear keeping the convection and low-level center displaced to the south for the next 24 hours or so. On the forecast track, Laura is expected to remain just offshore the southern Cuba today, move into the Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday morning, and approach the U..S northwest Gulf coast area Wednesday night and early Thursday. Since Laura's center is expected to remain over water just south of Cuba, there is the possibility that some slight strengthening could occur today or tonight before the cyclone reaches the Gulf of Mexico in 24 hours. After that, Laura will be moving over the very warm and deep waters of Gulf Stream and Loop Current located over the southeastern Gulf, which could trigger a brief period of rapid intensification. The GFS and ECMWF models, along with the statistical and corrected-consensus models, only strengthen the cyclone to a peak intensity around 75 kt. In contrast, the HRWF and HMON models bring Laura to major hurricane strength by 60 hours. Given the very favorable environmental conditions of high SSTs near 31 deg C and low vertical shear values less than 10 kt after 24-36 hours, subsequent intensity forecasts might have to trend more toward the regional models. But for now, the official intensity forecast will continue to follow a blend of the regional and global model intensity forecasts, and lies at the high-end of the intensity guidance at 60 and 72 hours. Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph (13 kt). In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across much of Cuba today. Heavy rainfall is likely across Cuba and Jamaica today, and these rains could cause mudslides and life-threatening flash and urban flooding. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas, and the Middle and Lower Florida Keys later today. 2. While the details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain, Laura is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of the week. This could result in a prolonged period of hazardous weather for areas that are likely to be affected by Marco. Interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Laura and Marco and updates to the forecast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 20.8N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 21.7N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 22.9N 84.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 24.5N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 26.1N 90.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 28.0N 92.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 29.8N 93.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 35.4N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 29/0600Z 37.6N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion storm laura

Tropical Storm Marco Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2020-08-24 10:57:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 08:57:22 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Marco (AT4/AL142020)

2020-08-24 10:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR MARCO BUT DANGEROUS STORM SURGE STILL ANTICIPATED... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 the center of Marco was located near 27.6, -88.2 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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