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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-08-24 04:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240254 CCA TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CORRECTED TO REMOVE THE DRY TORTUGAS FROM THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS... FLORIDA. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF HAITI. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * DRY TORTUGAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY TO KEY WEST THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 76.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 75.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.1N 79.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.5N 82.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 23.8N 85.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.3N 88.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.1N 90.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.2N 92.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.2N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 37.4N 83.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 76.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Marco Graphics
2020-08-24 04:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 02:54:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 03:31:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marco Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-08-24 04:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2020 02:53:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-08-24 04:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 240253 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) STENNIS MS 34 X 19(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) STENNIS MS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 2 60(62) 3(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) BURAS LA 50 X 17(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) BURAS LA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 87 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 280N 890W 50 34 20(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 890W 64 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 34(34) 16(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 19(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 10(10) 25(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 22(22) 34(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 4(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 30(36) 4(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 11(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEESLER AB 34 1 13(14) 2(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-24 04:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240251 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY HAS BEEN CANCELED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * CAMERON TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 87.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 87.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 87.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.0N 88.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 90.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.6N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.8N 93.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.7N 94.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 87.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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